We are currently down .3% on the week. After reaching new highs, the market has taken a week to relax.
Market Review
We spent all wee from 6200 to a high of 6290. I fully expect that in the next 2 weeks we come down to confirm this upper channel. Probably touching the 20 sma near 6135. MACD is waning and RSI is hot, but as always, that can stay that way for longer than many are prepared for. On the weekly and monthly chart these indicators are fine and just starting their green run.
From two letters ago, I’ve moved up just under 3%, and we are only in the first half of July. When the market moves up, I’m positioned to capitalize, and when it’s not, I tread water. There’s still a long way to go, but I’m getting close to increasing the contract count, which will help accelerate things.
In these past two weeks, I’ve been able to close out of 4 positions. I’ve been trying to enter in the afternoon or event dip, and exiting on the lunchtime pop.
Posts
Been a busy week, so I’ve been off Twitter, honestly probably a good thing for mental health anyway. This chart caught my eye, though. I like seeing averages against current pricing. The expectation is that it dances around the lines, but generally trends similarly.
Quick Charts
I was able to get a put credit spread to close from the local low to high. We are hanging out at the top, so it does sort of feel like we will pop over, but I don’t feel like pushing it, so I am not in any position.
With SPX at highs, VIX is hanging out at lows. Caution.
Unsurprisingly, we show up on stocks over the 50 ema. There is room to go up further, though. 85-90 is a good stopping point and would be a high for 2025 if it can hit it.
Fear and Greed is officially in Extreme Greed, if only just by a little. This is a high for the year. I would like to see us get proper frothy before a sizable giveback in Sept.
Retail traders near the highs for the year, they are always or at least usually overly cautious and reactive. If we can get into the 50’s that could mark the top.
Still having 5 cuts planned out, though at a little bit of a slower pace when compared to two letters ago. We are expecting a new Fed chairperson.
Earnings and Events
2024 Results
Q2 Winners: ELF, FSLR, CHWY, CRWD, AVGO, ADBE, ORCL, FDX.
Q3 Winners: GS, SPOT, LMT, ENPH, TMO, RTX, MCD, PYPL, PLTR, UBER, UPST, SHOP, LLY, TTD, SE, ORCL, MU
Q3 Losers: UPS, QCOM, LRCX, MBLY, W, INTC, ROKU, SMCI, ABNB, DG, AVGO
Q4 Winners: TSLA, CVNA, PLTR, ELF, SHOP, SPOT, DIS, SNOW, DE, CRM, LULU, ULTA, AVGO
Q4 Losers: HOOD, ROKU, W, MELI, NVAX, RKT, AMAT, TGT, ORCL, ADBE, MU
2025 Results
Q1 Winners: JPM, GS, MS, NFLX, PLTR, SPOT, UBER, NET, SMCI, UPST, HOOD, MGM, ABNB, ROKU, PLUG
Q1 Losers: UPS, DECK, PYPL, ELF, TTD, TWLO, FSLR, BBY, CRWD, ADBE
Q2 Winners: JPM, TSLA, NOW, LRCX, MSFT, DIS, TTD, SE, ELF, ULTA, DG, NKE
Q2 Losers: UNH, ENPH, DASH, PDD, LULU, DOCU
Q3 Winners:
Q3 Losers:
Last Week
None
This Week
Interested in: JPM JNJ TSM NFLX MMM
Banking and chemicals next week, with a touch of tech, as earnings season spins up once again.
Relatively light week, CPI, PPI, Retail, Jobs. Nothing too big.
Rating
My attempt at being clearer on my expectations for the upcoming week:
Bullish
Bullish/Neutral
Neutral/Bullish
Neutral
Neutral/Bearish
Bearish/Neutral
Bearish
Last week I said fully bullish in July, neutral in Aug, and neutral/bearish in Sept based on seasonality. I think this continues to play out, but I’m sort of thinking a small drop early in the week, and then recovery by the end of next week, so perhaps #4 fits.
Conclusion
The market is fully calling Trump out on everything. It’s over it. Back that up with some strong pent-up demand and seasonality, and the market is looking good. Things never last, though, and so there will be some giveback. The goal is always to be a hair early, but not significantly as to give us a worse position, leading into a move, as well as missed opportunities to continue with existing momentum.
Good luck out there!
As always, staying realistic and nimble is key to moving forward productively.
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